ANDERSON — It was a tough year for Anderson Community Schools. Years to come might not get any easier.

Trends that have become constants for the system — declining enrollment, shrinking revenue and a dismal graduation rate among them — reached worrisome levels.

“I definitely think we’ve got a big problem,” said Fred Guthrie, a father of three ACS students — two at Anderson High School and one at North Side Middle School. “The school system has been in disarray for a number of years.”

Three schools closed on Friday — Robinson and Southview elementaries and South Side Middle School. More could have closed and more probably will.

“I don’t see how we’re going to survive without looking at some additional closings,” said ACS Superintendent Mikella Lowe, who will retire on July 1. Lowe said the system’s budget deficit of $5 million could increase to $10 million or $11 million in 2011.

“I hope that’s a worst-case scenario,” she said.

She has said her successor and the system face more difficult choices in the year ahead. Assistant superintendent Lennon Brown will step in as an interim leader. He has made no bones about the tough job he will inherit.

Regarding the schools’ financial state, “We’ve never been here, where we are now, before,” he said.

Tuesday, the Anderson Community Schools board laid off three dozen teachers as part of its deficit-reduction effort. DStafford 5/26/09 check this. Some of those positions might be restored with federal stimulus money, but that won’t be clarified until next month.

ACS Business Manager Kevin Brown said the cuts made so far should save about $4 million. But it’s an excercise that will likely be repeated, especially because state revenue forecasts are shrinking.

“It’s bad news exaggerated by more bad news,” he said.

“This is just the beginning,” Anderson Federation of Teachers President Rick Muir said in a recent interview. “It’s not the end of the cuts. ... The future doesn’t look good for the next two to three school years.

“These are some of the most difficult times I’ve seen,” Muir said, “not just for education, but for towns and cities also. It’s not just ACS and the city of Anderson, it’s across the field in all four corners of the state.”

But it’s tougher at ACS due to declining enrollment. Each student enrolled in ACS or other Indiana schools represents about $6,000 in state funding. Fewer students mean less money.

ACS’s enrollment has steadily declined in recent decades, and the system is predicted to lose more students. Compounding the population decline, many parents have opted to transfer their children from ACS to systems such as Frankton-Lapel, Alexandria, Daleville and Yorktown. For the first time last year, such transfers could be done tuition-free to systems that accept nonresident students. South Madison Community Schools is considering allowing nonresident students to transfer.

Lowe said 378 fewer students than expected arrived at the beginning of last school year. So far, at least 60 more ACS students have been accepted for transfer to other school systems. There could be more; Lowe said the schools might not know how many students will transfer until closer to the beginning of the school year.

“Lapel is actually driving a bus into our district and picking kids up,” she said.

It’s a confounding situation for parents and educators who say ACS is getting a bum rap.

Andrea Clapp, president of ACS Parents Advisory Council and a member of the North Side Middle School Parents Club, has a daughter at North Side and a son at Anderson High School.

Given the option to choose, she said the family considered transferring to Lapel.

“We thought about sending the kids there, but actually Anderson has everything the kids need; it’s just not put out there,” she said, noting that ACS offers programs such as ROTC that aren’t always available elsewhere.

Facing difficulties in ACS, she said, “You don’t just put your tail down and run, you band together with other people and make a difference.”

“The reason for me it is so troubling is that the perception of (ACS) is poor right now, and that’s very unfortunate,” Lowe said. She said the system offers more advanced-placement courses than any other county district, and students compete at a high level.

“Our kids have a lot more opportunity than kids in other districts do,” she said. “We somehow have to change the perception that our kids are not getting a good education.”

Muir said the system and teachers often are blamed for circumstances over which they have no control. He said a graduation rate of just over 50 percent is an example.

“Certainly everyone would like to see the graduation rate increase, but there’s no magic wand. The bottom line is, young people today, far too many don’t have the support system in their lives of someone who guides them and supports them and stresses the importance of education,” Muir said.

“We have a curriculum I would match against any,” he said. “I would match our staff against any, and we have a great community. There’s a lot that needs to be accomplished. There’s no single answer, and it takes a lot of parental involvement.”

Clapp agreed, but said accountability for students, teachers and parents is lacking at ACS. “We’ve just gone so far from accountability to blame and it’s not getting us anywhere.”

Lowe said ACS needs a long-range plan that spells out what will happen with schools, facilities, and their grade-level structures as enrollment declines.

“The board really needs, and the community, to have some difficult discussions about how to make this work,” she said.

Despite criticism of the state of the system, parents such as Guthrie say they’d never transfer their kids.

“If you’re involved in it, you can help fix it,” he said. “We’re all trying to work in the right direction. The problem is we don’t have a big pile of money.”