ANDERSON­, Ind. — Anderson Community Schools has lost students by the thousands in the past decades, and projections for future student enrollment show a school system expected to continue losing about 2 to 3 percent of its student body per year.

“At the very least, the figure we have to look at is 1,200-1,800 to 2,000 (fewer students) over the next four years,” ACS board member Tim Long said in a telephone interview on Thursday. “According to most of the trendline data we saw, we’ll lose about 300 students a year over the next four years at minimum.”

That would mean more than $1.8 million in lost revenue annually on top of projected multimillion deficits facing the school corporation.

Kevin Brown, ACS business manager, said the Indiana Department of Education has predicted an enrollment decline of about 200-300 students per year over the next five years — not quite as steep a decline as Long said was expected.

“Crystal balls are a rare commodity nowadays,” Brown said. “Enrollment trending is a very difficult thing to project.”

ACS’s enrollment this year dropped to about 9,100 students — 1,000 fewer than in 2005. The system has lost students each year since 1971.

Declining enrollment and a resulting budget crisis are driving the Anderson Community Schools board toward a school consolidation vote that will be taken on Tuesday. The board will vote on whether there will be one high school with grades 10-12, or two schools with grades 7-12.

Brown said enrollment will plateau at a point in the future, though it’s not clear when. “We believe that’s an entire community effort,” he said, that involves city government, business groups and greater collaboration between stakeholders in the system.

Some of the forces driving falling student populations have been factors for years, such as the economic turmoil created from General Motors’ decline. A new charter school in the city, as well as changes in state law that allow students to transfer tuition-free to other districts, also are draining students.

Many Highland High School parents and students also have said they will consider leaving ACS if the board approves a one-high-school option.

Long said he has not made a decision about how he will vote on Tuesday, but he said that without action that would stabilize or reverse declining enrollment, the school system will be facing even harsher choices.

“If we keep on with trend lines we’re looking at,” he said, “There will be four K-3 (schools), one mega 4-6, and one high school building with grades 7-12” in a few years.

“These are some of the worst-case scenarios, and I hope it doesn’t come to that, but it could.”

Finding an answer to dealing with a decline in enrollment will be a task for Felix Chow, the superintendent who will take over ACS in January. Chow has been involved in workshops in which board members participated, though Long said he offered no opinions.

“His statement was whatever you do, we can work with it,” Long said. “His involvement has been one of guiding us in terms of helping us focus on information and developing the information we need to work with.”

In an e-mail, Chow said, “Whatever the board decides, I will lead the district towards a unified vision for the benefit of our students within the financial means as mandated by state and federal laws.”

Declining enrollment and what to do about it isn’t new to ACS. Former Superintendent Jane Kendrick in 1995 first suggested a one-high-school option. The board ultimately opted to close Madison Heights High School.

“It’s been an ongoing tough question for the community to respond to,” she said.

Kendrick, now assistant superintendent for secondary education at Indianapolis Public Schools, said Anderson’s problems aren’t unique.

“This is a problem for all urban school districts,” she said. “It’s not getting any easier for urban schools.”

Contact Dave Stafford: 648-4250, dave.stafford@heraldbulletin.com



School options

The Anderson Community School Corp. board is considering consolidation plans for the coming school year. Either option presented to the school board includes closing Edgewood, Forest Hills, Killbuck and 29th Street elementaries. A decision will be made at a special board meeting at 6 p.m. Tuesday at the Administration Building, 101 W. 29th St.

-- Option A: One high school, grades 10-12; one middle school, grades 7-9; seven elementary schools, with five K-3 schools and two 4-6 schools in the existing middle school buildings. Projected annual savings: $5.22 million.

-- Option B: Two high schools with grades 7-12. Five K-3 schools and two 4-6 schools in the existing middle school buildings. Projected annual savings: $3.98 million.