The Herald Bulletin

Morning Update

Election 2012

November 9, 2011

Election results at individual precincts changed a lot from '07

Candidates saw decreases, increases across the city

ANDERSON, Ind. — Democratic Mayor Kris Ockomon believes his re-election loss is partly to blame for the votes that went to Libertarian Rob Jozwiak instead of him. But Jozwiak disagrees and thinks that if he hadn’t been a candidate, Republican Kevin Smith would have still won.

Ockomon said Jozwiak “took votes away” from him, but Jozwiak counters that by saying those votes didn’t belong to Ockomon in the first place.

A closer look at the election results show that Ockomon’s support decreased in almost every precinct compared to the elections he won in 2007, when he defeated Smith. Meanwhile, support for Jozwiak and Smith was higher this year than four years ago in almost every precinct.

Only 32 percent of registered voters submitted their votes. Smith got 6,030 votes, Ockomon 5,626 and Jozwiak 1,846.

At least seven precincts that had a higher percentage of Democratic mayoral voters in 2007 swung to the Republican side on Tuesday. For example, in Precinct 19, Ockomon got 54 percent of the votes in 2007 and went down to 39 percent on Tuesday. More people voted for Smith in that precinct this year, going from 42 to 49 percent. Jozwiak went from 2.8 percent to 10.8 percent.

On Election Day, Ockomon said Jozwiak could play a factor in the outcome of the elections.

“Obviously, Mr. Jozwiak has been working hard,” he said. “He is in the middle of Kevin and I. He has definitely been able to cast some votes away from us both.”

When he realized Smith was about to claim the win, Ockomon said he felt like Jozwiak took more of his votes than Smith’s votes. He felt people turned to Jozwiak after seeing the negative fliers Smith had issued about Ockomon.

Jozwiak did make a bigger impact this year than four years ago, garnering 1,846 votes compared to 441. He says he has always pulled supporters from both parties, as well as independent voters, and therefore doesn’t think he was the reason for the outcome. He also thinks his supporters stayed home and didn’t vote because his opponents and others unfairly spoke poorly of him.

“If I wasn’t in this race, Kevin would have beaten Kris by more votes,” Jozwiak said. “Kris would have lost. The spread would have been much larger if I wasn’t in the race. A lot of people that didn’t like either choice (Smith or Ockomon) voted for me, and if I wasn’t in it, those people would have voted for Kevin instead of Kris.”

One precinct that possibly could reflect Ockomon’s theory, based on numbers, was Precinct 15.

While Smith retained the same percentage in supporters as he had in 2007, Ockomon dropped from 62.5 percent of votes to 58 percent, while Jozwiak rose from 8.3 percent to 15 percent.

But in other cases it’s hard to pinpoint where Ockomon’s former supporters went — whether they voted for Smith or Jozwiak instead, or didn’t vote at all.

In some of the precincts where Ockomon lost the most support, Jozwiak had some of his highest percentage of supporters. In Precinct 34 for example, Ockomon went from 74.6 percent of the votes in 2007 to 54.2 percent on Tuesday, while Jozwiak jumped from 7.2 percent to 26 percent — his highest show of support. In Precinct 44, Ockomon dropped from 63.8 percent to 44.6 percent, while Jozwiak grew from 3 percent to 19.5 percent.

But then there are some precincts where Jozwiak had big increases in support, jumping to 24 and 17 percent, where Ockomon hardly lost any support. And Smith also gained a lot of support in precincts that Ockomon lost, so many voters who picked Ockomon over Smith four years ago also changed their minds.

Jozwiak said it is arrogant for Ockomon to say he took his votes away, because they don’t belong to him.

“In any election, every candidate pulls votes, but they are the people’s votes,” Jozwiak said. “He never recognized that he worked for the people. He thought the people worked for him.”

The results show just how much of an impact voters can make. There were only about 400 votes separating Ockomon and Smith, and Jozwiak’s support grew a lot this round. Had more registered voters showed up at the polls, the results could have remained in Smith’s favor and given him a much bigger lead, or they could have changed the race entirely, and moved it in Ockomon’s or Jozwiak’s favor.

Contact Melanie Hayes: 648-4250, melanie.hayes@heraldbulletin.com

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