INDIANAPOLIS — Indiana University economists predict a moderate recession in 2009 and additional losses of up to 15,000 jobs in the state because of a slowing economy that already has affected housing, construction and manufacturing.
The economists said during a presentation Thursday that the recession next year likely would be similar in severity to those in 1990 and 2001.
“But we cannot rule out something worse, comparable to the severe recession in the early 1980s,” said Bill Witte, associate professor of economics and co-director of the Center for Econometric Model Research at IU.
The annual report by the IU economists calls for the statewide job market to shrink through most of 2009, before improving late in the year. Indiana’s unemployment rate in September was 6.2 percent, down from 6.4 percent the previous month, and the IU study said the average rate for 2009 could range from 6 percent to 7 percent.
The outlook for Indianapolis could be worse than the state as a whole, the report said, because of a strengthening dollar that could slow manufacturing export growth. The jobless rate in Indianapolis could hit 6.5 percent next year, up from 5.5 percent in September, and might not peak until 2010, according to the study.
Indiana already has seen five straight months of job losses, mainly in manufacturing and construction. Other sectors, including education, health services, government, leisure and hospitality have seen job growth.
“Indiana is not immune from the forces shaping the national and global economies, and its outlook for the year ahead is similarly cloudy,” said Jerry Conover, director of the Indiana Business Research Center at IU’s Kelley School of Business.
The panel will present its findings in nine other cities across the state through Nov. 18. It will be in Anderson on Tuesday.
Economists to speak in Anderson
A traveling panel of Indiana University economists will present a report on the economy at 11:30 a.m. Tuesday at Anderson Chamber of Commerce Business Outlook luncheon at the Anderson Country Club. Anderson is one of 10 Hoosier cities where the economists are making presentations. To make reservations, call the Chamber at (765) 642-0264. The Herald Bulletin plans coverage of the local event. Look for coverage at www.theheraldbulletin.com on Tuesday and in the Wednesday print edition.
Local News
6:55 p.m.: IU economists forecast more job losses for Indiana
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